Developing System Dynamic Modeling for Risk Management in Water Utilities: A Proposal for Framework Based on a Sistematic Review

Abstract

This work systematically reviewed articles published between 2019 and 2024 on system dynamics approaches in water resource management, focusing on drinking water supply, seeking to identify advances in models which address risks or risk management in water resources. The aim was to verify whether the models contribute to corporate risk management in companies which provide water supply services. Based on an adaptation of the PRISMA methodology, forty articles published in journals were selected. Main results: all articles presented a case study; only one article presented a water utility as a case study; 20% of the studies entailed risks in modeling and 15% included stakeholders and experts in the formulation of the models; 45% of the studies have adopted both qualitative and quantitative system dynamics modeling; 53% of the studies were produced on the Asian continent, especially in China; 47% of the quantitative models are integrated with other types of modeling; 91% of the models have undergone a verification method. Vensim is the most widely used software in studies. At last, based on these results and identified gaps, a system dynamics model structure was proposed for corporate risk management in drinking water supply companies.